The future of the HVAC segment in Europe in the coming years (2026–2030+)

1) The market will break on regulations, not on “fashion”

The European HVAC market is no longer primarily demand-driven and “comfortable”. It is being pushed into technological change by regulations and energy prices: from fossil fuels to electrification (heat pumps), from high GWP to low GWP (natural refrigerants), from “equipment sales” to “performance sales” (service, monitoring, guaranteed savings).

The strongest external levers:

F-gas legislation: stricter restrictions and gradual reduction of HFCs with the aim of complete elimination by 2050; major impacts on refrigerant availability, prices and service strategies.

EPBD (Energy Performance of Buildings Directive): pressure on energy efficiency of buildings, renovations and systemic reduction of consumption; HVAC becomes the core of “buildings as an energy system”, not an isolated profession.

Ecodesign/sustainable products (ESPR): moving towards higher efficiency, reparability, transparency and a lower environmental footprint of products; impact on portfolio, documentation and spare parts.

2) Heat pumps: short-term volatility, medium-term growth

2024 showed that the market is not linear: in 19 European countries, about 2.31 million heat pumps were sold, which is a decrease of ~22% compared to 2023.
However, this decrease is not the “end of the trend”, but the result of a combination of factors: unstable subsidies, a weaker economy, the electricity/gas price ratio, installer capacity and communication chaos.
At the same time, there are already signs of a turnaround: according to information linked to the EHPA, a slight recovery (+9%) appeared in the 1st half of 2025.

Conclusion for 2026–2030: expect growth, but cyclical and uneven by country. The winners will be those who know how to sell the solution (design + hydraulics + regulation + service), not the box.

3) Refrigerants and service: the hardest change will come from F-gas

New reality for refrigeration and air conditioning:
HFC restrictions will push refrigerant prices up and increase the value of proper design, tightness, recovery and responsible service;
the market will move towards low GWP: R290 (propane) in small/medium capacities, CO₂ (R744) in retail/industry, or HFO blends where natural refrigerants hit safety or technical limits.

Business implication: service and retrofit of refrigeration systems will become more attractive in terms of margins than "new installations" alone, as legislation and availability of refrigerants will increase the value of know-how and rapid response.

4) Digitalization and regulation: “software will eat up” part of the HVAC margin

In the coming years, the share of:
remote monitoring (faults, COP/EER, consumption),
predictive maintenance (preventive replacement of parts based on data),
optimization based on tariffs, photovoltaics and storage (EMS/HEMS/BMS).

Whoever owns the data and the service contract will own the recurring revenue. Sales without service will be an increasingly weak model.